Why Climateflation Will Drive Food Prices More Than War

Oxford Economics says Europe’s extreme heat is cutting grain output and crop yields enough to push food inflation more than the recent Strait of Hormuz shock.

Record June 2026 temperatures forced lower EU and UK grain forecasts, while losses on French farms showed weather damage overtaking war-related commodity disruption.

The report suggests climate-driven “climateflation” is becoming a bigger inflation risk, with extreme weather able to keep straining food supply chains even if geopolitical tensions ease.