Analyst Warns Google’s Intel TPU Bet Hinges on a Brutal Yield Jump From 90% to 98%

Ming-Chi Kuo says Google’s interest in Intel for its next TPU, Humufish, depends on Intel proving EMIB-T packaging can scale from 90% validation yield to 98% production yield.

That yield jump is considered difficult, and Google is still evaluating other ways to cut TPU costs.

One alternative under review is direct tape-out at TSMC, which could offer a cheaper path.

Google is trying to reduce TPU manufacturing costs to better compete with NVIDIA, making packaging economics a key factor in the deal.