Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket | Hacker News

A discussion of a Polymarket study says the biggest winners look like patient limit-order liquidity providers.

Some of the apparent trading skill may come from cross-venue arbitrage across platforms such as Kalshi, Limitless, and Smarkets.

The authors say matching trades across venues is hard, but insider trading likely exists and still does not explain most profits.

The takeaway is that prediction-market gains may reflect market structure and liquidity provision as much as pure forecasting skill.