Who wins and who loses in the “prediction market” where you bet on real-world events? Evidence from the major prediction market Polymarket

A new analysis of Polymarket found that only about 30% of roughly 2.47 million users turned a profit.

The biggest gains were concentrated among a tiny group of traders, with the top 0.05% capturing most of the profits.

The findings highlight how prediction markets often reward a small set of highly active, well-positioned participants.

The data offers a clear look at who benefits from prediction markets and how losses are distributed across users.