Aschenbrenner's AI thesis could be correct, his timing and leverage were not

AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund, Situational Awareness, sold most of its public-stock bets to Citadel after leverage losses and margin calls hit the portfolio.

The fund had recently posted big gains and was seeking new capital, but falling AI stocks, a short software trade, and heavy borrowing triggered emergency liquidations.

Aschenbrenner still holds private AI bets such as Anthropic, but the episode shows that a sound long-term AI thesis can still suffer major losses with too much leverage.

It also highlights how crowded AI infrastructure trades can reverse sharply, punishing investors who are poorly timed even when their broader view is right.