More than half of all "long shot" bets on Polymarket pay off

A study of Polymarket suggests most price discovery comes from a small, informed minority rather than the wider crowd.

The research challenges the idea that prediction markets mainly reflect “wisdom of crowds,” especially in long-shot bets.

At the same time, companies are offering tools to track suspiciously successful wallets and copy informed traders.

The trend is drawing fresh scrutiny over insider-like activity, market integrity, and how prediction markets should be regulated.